2015 season week 15 tournament previews

This week’s tournaments got underway several hours ago and this week promises to be another busy one, with five ATP/WTA events, in addition to SIX Challenger tournaments!

Three of the five ATP and WTA tournaments are new to the calendar, in Estoril (which has been moved up the road from Oeiras) and Istanbul, on the ATP side, whilst Prague has been added to the WTA schedule.

As always, detailed daily data will be available via the ATP/WTA daily trading spreadsheets, which can be purchased via the links on the right.

With new venues on the schedule, historical information is impossible to source for these three tournaments.

Such a busy schedule means time is a premium this week so again I’ll stick to the basics and give the raw stats with not much commentary.

Week 15 Trading Overview (only matches where point by point data is available):-

Only matches where point by point available
	Matches	S1 Winner Train S2	S2 Non Train	Train %	Set 3	S3 Player Breaks 1st Trains	S3 Non Train	Train %
ATP
Munich	25	8	17	32.0	10	6	4	60.0
WTA
Marrakech	30	15	15	50.0	8	5	3	62.5

The table above illustrates the percentage of situations that ‘trained’ in these events in 2014.

As I mentioned in the previous previews, I’ve had some questions about trains on Twitter so I’ll clarify this a little better – a train would be a situation where there is no upward price swing from a given position. Therefore in these instances, a set one winner train in set two would indicate that they took a set and break lead in set two and retained this lead without being broken back. A non-train would include the player that lost the first set breaking first in set two, or recovering a set and break deficit, or even recovering one break when a set and double break down.

Likewise, a set three train in this instance would be a player that has broken first and retains this lead throughout the deciding set.

The two tournaments which were played last year are in stark contrast to each other!

The men’s event in Munich had less trains than WTA Marrakech, which is a real rarity, with the train percentage in Morocco the highest I can remember for a WTA event since I added these weekly previews at the start of the season. This is strange as the service hold figures for Marrakech indicate the venue is very slow…

ATP 250 Munich:-

2014 service hold 75.1% (Clay Court Mean 75.7%)

Conditions are likely to be around average, although last year’s data indicate there were plenty of fightbacks…

2014 Champion: Martin Klizan (beat Fabio Fognini in the final)

Predicted Weather: 16 degrees C, rain.

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Kohlschreiber	78.6	29.3	107.9
Monfils	77	30.3	107.3
Murray	76.1	30.9	107.0
Bautista-Agut	78.0	29.0	107.0
Andujar	75.7	31.0	106.7
Goffin	74.3	32.2	106.5
Vesely	80.0	21.6	101.6
Fognini	70.8	30.5	101.3
Thiem	72.9	27.2	100.1
Troicki	77.9	19.5	97.4

ATP 250 Istanbul:-

2014 service hold N/A% (Clay Court Mean 75.7%)

Conditions are unknown.

Predicted Weather: 20 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Federer	88.3	26.4	114.7
Cuevas P	81.8	28.0	109.8
Dimitrov	86.1	22.1	108.2
Giraldo	79.8	25.0	104.8
Gimeno-Traver	76.7	27.9	104.6
Lajovic	79.6	23.8	103.4
Dodig	79.0	22.5	101.5
Haider-Maurer	78.5	21.7	100.2
Bellucci	78.8	21.2	100.0
Schwartzman	65.0	32.4	97.4

ATP 250 Estoril:-

2014 service hold N/A% (Clay Court Mean 75.7%)

Conditions are unknown.

Predicted Weather: 20 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Robredo	83.0	24.4	107.4
Garcia-Lopez	74.7	31.2	105.9
Gasquet	76.7	28.6	105.3
Almagro	81.1	23.1	104.2
Anderson	84.5	18.1	102.6
Mayer L	80.4	21.4	101.8
Ramos	74.7	27.1	101.8
Kyrgios *	77.1	23.7	100.8
Lopez	82.1	17.0	99.1
Coric *	71.8	22.9	94.7

*Included Adjusted Challenger stats

WTA International Prague:-

2014 service hold N/A% (Clay Court Mean 63.4%)

Conditions are unknown.

Predicted Weather: 16 degrees C, mixed.

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Kuznetsova	68.7	46.5	115.2
Begu	63.7	44.6	108.3
Brengle	70.4	37.8	108.2
Safarova	70.5	36.8	107.3
Bencic	65.4	39.5	104.9
Hercog	68.5	35.1	103.6
Giorgi	70.5	32	102.5
Cornet	69.6	32.5	102.1
Pliskova Ka	62.9	39.0	101.9
Goerges	62.9	34.6	97.5

WTA International Marrakech:-

2014 service hold 59.6% (Clay Court Mean 63.4%)

Conditions are likely to be very slow…

2014 Champion: Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor (beat Romina Oprandi in the final)

Predicted Weather: 32 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Muguruza	73.1	40.1	113.2
Vinci	68.5	38.5	107.0
Bacsinszky *	53.5	50.0	103.5
Puig	75.2	28.1	103.3
Svitolina	64.5	38.8	103.3
Pennetta	59.6	42.4	102.0
Arruabarrena	62.8	38.5	101.3
Schmiedlova	50.0	48.3	98.3
Kanepi	56.1	41.0	97.1
Knapp	57.9	33.3	91.2

* Using 3 year stats

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