2015 season week 14 tournament previews

What a hectic week!

Apologies for not posting this earlier but this has been the busiest week I can remember, with article writing and many matches (73 this Tuesday) across seven ATP/WTA and Challenger tournaments this week…

Week 14 got underway yesterday and already we’ve seen surprise exits for Dominic Thiem and Thiemo de Bakker in Barcelona, although De Bakker’s exit wasn’t such a surprise for spreadsheet subscribers, who were alerted to Ymer’s value, not to mention the difficulties the Dutchman was likely to have in holding serve. In Bucharest, the fancied Viktor Troicki was ousted by Daniel Gimeno-Traver whilst Florian Mayer’s return to tour won’t have been helped by being usurped by Malek Jaziri. In Stuttgart yesterday there was just one match, with promising youngster Carina Witthoeft getting the better of the erratic Mona Barthel.

With time a premium this week I’ll stick to the basics and give the raw stats with not much commentary – matches have been going on for several hours already today and I’m keen to get involved in the markets…

Week 14 Trading Overview (only matches where point by point data is available):-

Only matches where point by point available
	Matches	S1 Winner Train S2	S2 Non Train	Train %	Set 3	S3 Player Breaks 1st Trains	S3 Non Train	Train %
ATP
Barcelona	47	18	29	38.3	9	3	6	33.3
Bucharest	26	11	15	42.3	11	9	2	81.8
Week 14 Overall	73	29	44	39.7	20	12	8	60.0
WTA
Stuttgart	28	4	24	14.3	8	6	2	75.0

The table above illustrates the percentage of situations that ‘trained’ in these events in 2014.

As I mentioned in the previous previews, I’ve had some questions about trains on Twitter so I’ll clarify this a little better – a train would be a situation where there is no upward price swing from a given position. Therefore in these instances, a set one winner train in set two would indicate that they took a set and break lead in set two and retained this lead without being broken back. A non-train would include the player that lost the first set breaking first in set two, or recovering a set and break deficit, or even recovering one break when a set and double break down.

Likewise, a set three train in this instance would be a player that has broken first and retains this lead throughout the deciding set.

Surprisingly for quite a quick event, Stuttgart didn’t have many second set trains – I’ll put that down to low ability differentials between most players, with many of the top players making an effort to play in Germany.

In the ATP, train percentage is a little on the high side, so picking spots is highly recommended for laying players when leading.

ATP 500 Barcelona:-

2014 service hold 74.3% (Clay Court Mean 75.6%)

Conditions are likely to be quite slow. Matches with closer ability levels are likely to have more breaks and swings…

2014 Champion: Kei Nishikori (beat Santiago Giraldo in the final)

Predicted Weather: 20 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Nadal	83.2	42.3	125.5
Nishikori	81.7	35.4	117.1
Ferrer	79.7	36.6	116.3
Cuevas P	82.1	28.3	110.4
Verdasco	83.6	24.3	107.9
Bautista-Agut	77.1	30.3	107.4
Robredo	82.2	24.0	106.2
Tsonga	84.9	20.3	105.2
Cilic	79.9	23.6	103.5
Fognini	71.3	30.2	101.5

ATP 250 Bucharest:-

2014 service hold 74.8% (Clay Court Mean 75.6%)

Conditions are likely to be a little slow, with not as many swings as Barcelona…

2014 Champion: Grigor Dimitrov (beat Lukas Rosol in the final)

Predicted Weather: 14-21 degrees C, mixed (rain on Wednesday)

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Monfils	75.7	33.0	108.7
Gimeno-Traver	77.2	26.5	103.7
Garcia-Lopez	72.8	30.7	103.5
Simon	70.8	32.6	103.4
Coric	78.3	24.4	102.7
Lajovic	79.2	22.9	102.1
Haider-Maurer	78.8	22.6	101.4
Rosol	77.0	23.7	100.7
Vesely	78.8	19.6	98.4
Karlovic	88.7	9.0	97.7

WTA Premier Stuttgart:-

2014 service hold 65.4% (Clay Court Mean 63.4%)

Conditions are likely to be on the fast side of average, but close matches may give opportunities to lay leaders…

2014 Champion: Maria Sharapova (beat Ana Ivanovic in the final)

Predicted Weather: N/A (indoors)

Some Contenders:-

Player	18 Month Surface Hold %	18 Month Surface Break Opponent %	Combined %

Halep	75.5	52.5	128.0
Sharapova	72.8	47.3	120.1
Suarez Navarro	63.9	50.7	114.6
Muguruza	73.3	41.2	114.5
Errani	61.2	52.6	113.8
Ivanovic	70.7	42.0	112.7
Radwanska A	67.9	44.0	111.9
Safarova	70.4	38.9	109.3
Kerber	65.2	42.9	108.1
Kvitova	67.5	33.6	101.1

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