As I mentioned in the review of the ATP model performance for the 2014 season, I’m keen to be as transparent as possible and give as much information as possible about the performance of the model and general spreadsheet information.
In this previous review, I ascertained that the ATP model returned 3.48% ROI in non-first round matches and this rose to 3.91% in Challengers. With that being a huge undertaking in itself, I didn’t assess the WTA although I plan to in the future.
First round matches are a strange issue. From my data, and also having looked at the large US-based syndicates information, this is a common problem. It would appear that bookmakers can steal a march on modellers in these first round clashes, with an ability to source (perhaps paid for?) inside information on player condition a likely reason for this. It would also be very interesting indeed to assess whether market movement was more significant in first round matches than any other round – it would not surprise me at all if this is the case – e.g. the recent match between Alexandr Dolgopolov and Paolo Lorenzi at the Australian Open.
Currently my model is returning 2.88% (based on a level stake profit) across the ATP/WTA from 309 non-first round matches (Wednesday onwards) in the 2015 season and 4.68% from 233 Challenger Tour matches (also Wednesday onwards), upto and including 30th March 2015.
If you would like any further information, including P&L statements, please get in touch via: [email protected].
