In
the third of my series of articles, I look at how American players fare in
matches on US soil. This research project was given to me by a Twitter
follower – so if you would like me to analyse/research something for you then
please get in touch. There will be a number of articles and resources
added between now and the start of the season in January.
I’m
splitting this analysis into a number of categories – US male players in the
top 150 playing non-US/Canadian main draw ATP events only (split into European
and Asian/Australasian events), those same players playing US based events,
South American players with any rank playing European Challengers (this
research area was specifically suggested) and US female players in the top 150
playing non-US/Canadian WTA events (split into European and Asian/Australasian
events) and those same players playing US based events.
For
clarity, my policy on retirements here was void them if the first set wasn’t
completed, and I’m using Pinnacle Sports starting prices for my analysis.
There
are currently 16 US players in the ATP top 100 with John Isner – ranked 16 –
leading the pack. Only him and Sam Querrey are currently ranked inside
the top 75 in the world.
Sam Querrey has an equally poor record in the US as in other parts of the world…
We’ve
seen already that US players have a horrific record in general both in Europe
and Asia/Australasia – how does that compare to their record in America?
Here’s
the data for each player’s American matches:-
John
Isner:
2012
– 35 matches, 28 wins – best win vs Novak Djokovic (SP 7.23), worst defeat vs
Philipp Kohlschreiber (SP 1.25).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£882 (ROI 25.20%).
2013
– 39 matches, 29 wins – best win vs Novak Djokovic (SP 7.67), worst defeat vs
Edouard Roger-Vasselin (SP 1.24).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£1525 (ROI 39.10%)
2012/2013
Combined – 74 matches, 57 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £2407 (ROI
32.53%).
Sam
Querrey:
2012
– 27 matches, 18 wins – best win vs Kevin Anderson (SP 2.69), worst defeat vs
Dudi Sela (SP 1.21).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£118 (ROI -4.37%)
2013
– 21 matches, 12 wins – best win vs Denis Istomin (SP 1.79), worst defeat vs
Tim Smyczek (SP 1.22).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£420 (ROI -20.00%)
2012/2013
Combined – 48 matches, 30 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£538 (ROI
-11.21%).
Jack
Sock:
2012
– 12 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Florian Mayer (SP 6.20), worst defeat vs
Flavio Cipolla (SP 1.72).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£469 (ROI 39.08%)
2013
– 18 matches, 8 wins – best win vs Milos Raonic (SP 11.52), worst defeat vs Jan
Hernych (SP 1.64).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£596 (ROI 33.11%)
2012/2013
Combined – 30 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£1065 (ROI
35.50%)
Denis
Kudla:
2012
– 7 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Jack Sock (1.94), worst defeat vs Antonio
Veic (1.97).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£316 (ROI -45.14%)
2013
– 6 matches, 1 win – best win vs Jiri Vesely (SP 1.96), worst defeat vs Samuel
Groth (SP 1.52).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£404 (ROI -67.33%)
2012/2013
Combined – 13 matches, 3 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£720 (ROI
-55.38%)
Michael
Russell:
2012
– 15 matches, 8 wins – best win vs Mardy Fish (SP 5.14), worst defeat vs
Marinko Matosevic (SP 1.67).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£738 (ROI 49.20%).
2013
– 14 matches, 7 wins – best win vs Igor Sijsling (SP 3.64), worst defeat vs Tim
Smyczek (SP 1.81).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£171 (ROI 12.21%).
2012/2013
Combined – 29 matches, 15 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£909 (ROI
31.34%)
Tim
Smyczek:
2012
– 8 match, 3 wins – best win vs Denis Istomin (SP 3.49), worst defeat vs Bobby
Reynolds (SP 2.00).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£78 (ROI 9.75%).
2013
– 17 matches, 7 wins – best win vs Sam Querrey (SP 5.00), worst defeat vs Steve
Johnson (SP 1.73)
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£125 (ROI 7.35%).
2012/2013
Combined – 25 matches, 10 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£203 (ROI
8.12%).
Ryan
Harrison:
2012
– 24 matches, 15 wins – best win vs Benjamin Becker (SP 1.83), worst defeat vs
James Blake (SP 1.35).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£139 (ROI -5.79%).
2013
– 17 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Lleyton Hewitt (SP 2.53), worst defeat vs
Daniel Munoz De La Nava (SP 1.40).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£550 (ROI -32.35%).
2012/2013
Combined – 41 matches, 21 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£689 (ROI
-16.80%).
Alex
Kuznetsov:
2012
– 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Michael Russell (SP 2.97)
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%)
2013
– 4 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Kenny De Schepper (SP 2.72), worst defeat vs
Michael Russell (SP 2.20).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£63 (ROI 15.75%).
2012/2013
Combined – 5 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£37 (ROI
-7.40%).
Rajeev
Ram:
2012
– 11 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Brian Baker (SP 4.26), worst defeat vs Steve
Johnson (SP 2.22).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£526 (ROI 47.82%).
2013
– 7 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Fabio Fognini (SP 5.94), worst defeat vs Michal
Przysiezny (SP 1.54).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£28 (ROI 4.00%).
2012/2013
Combined – 7 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£554 (ROI
30.78%).
Rhyne
Williams:
2012
– 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Frederico Gil (SP 2.69)
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%)
2013
– 13 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Denis Kudla (SP 2.60), worst defeat vs Santiago
Giraldo (SP 2.20)
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£355 (ROI -27.31%)
2012/2013
Combined – 15 matches, 5 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£555 (ROI
-37.00%).
Donald
Young:
2012
– 11 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Grigor Dimitrov (SP 2.95), worst defeat vs
Steve Johnson (SP 1.48).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£560 (ROI -50.91%).
2013
– 4 matches, 1 win – best win vs Martin Klizan (SP 1.90), worst defeat vs
Michael Russell (SP 1.90).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£310 (ROI -77.50%).
2012/2013
Combined – 15 matches, 3 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£870 (ROI
-58.00%).
James
Blake:
2012
– 12 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Ryan Harrison (SP 3.54), worst defeat vs
Tobias Kamke (SP 1.59).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£197 (ROI -16.42%).
2013
– 17 matches, 8 wins – best win vs Jerzy Janowicz (SP 2.99), worst defeat vs
Marinko Matosevic (SP 1.44).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£107 (ROI -6.29%).
2012/2013
Combined – 29 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£304 (ROI
-10.48%).
Bradley
Klahn:
2012
– 3 matches, 1 win – best win vs Jurgen Melzer (SP 3.21), worst defeat vs Paolo
Lorenzi (SP 1.88).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£21 (ROI 7.00%)
2013
– 4 matches, 1 win – best win vs Kenny De Schepper (SP 1.38), worst defeat vs
Jack Sock (SP 2.26).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£262 (ROI -65.50%).
2012
Combined – 7 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£241 (ROI
-34.42%).
Wayne
Odesnik:
2012
– 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Paolo Lorenzi (SP 1.67).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%).
2013
– 2 matches, 1 win – best win vs Roberto Bautista-Agut (SP 2.84), worst defeat
vs Stanislas Wawrinka (SP 6.61).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = +£84 (ROI 42.00%).
2012/2013
Combined – 4 matches, 1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£116 (ROI -29.00%).
Bobby
Reynolds:
2012
– 5 matches, 1 win – best win vs Ivo Karlovic (SP 3.74), worst defeat vs Tim
Smyczek (SP 1.94).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£126 (ROI -31.50%).
2013
– 4 matches, 1 win – best win vs Benjamin Becker (SP 2.10), worst defeat vs Steve
Johnson/Yen-Hsun Lu (both SP 2.54).
Profit/Loss
to level £100 stakes = -£190 (ROI -47.50%).
2012/2013
Combined – 9 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£316 (ROI
-35.11%).
Overall
Combined US Top 150 Stats:-
2012
– 175 matches, 94 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£758 (ROI 4.33%)
2013
– 187 matches, 91 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£6 (ROI -0.03%)
2012/2013
Combined – 362 matches, 185 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£752 (ROI
2.08%)
As
we can see from the above figures, on the whole backing US players in American
events generates a very small 2.08% return on investment. Considering the Pinnacle ‘juice’ is several
percent, this is solid without being anything near spectacular – and not worth
adopting as a blanket strategy.
Furthermore,
without John Isner’s incredible stats being included the combined results drop
to 288 matches, 128 wins with a loss of £1655 being incurred (ROI of -5.75%)
which would indicate the lower level players do not compete as well as the
market expects them to on home soil.
As
mentioned in the previous paragraph, Isner’s results at US venues is
magnificent and a 32.53% ROI generated from 74 matches is reason enough to
consider backing him almost blindly when he plays in America. Looking at his results in this article and in
the previous two articles, it’s obvious that he gains the vast majority of his
wins and ranking points in the US and I’d be highly surprised if that changed
in the near future.
As
for Sam Querrey, his ROI of -11.21% over the sample shows he is not such a
viable betting proposition. In fact in
his last 50 matches anywhere he has a ROI of -20.2% which reflects the fact
that currently he is quite strongly over-rated by the market.
