Similar to the break-back concept in Tennis, the In-play Soccer Spreadsheets highlight opportunities where it is viable to oppose teams winning in matches.
This can be done in a variety of guises – a lay of the team winning can be considered, or backing the losing team -0.5 goals or +0.5 goals at half time could be another method. The in-play goal markets can also be used, backing over x goals when a team with poor lead retention stats take an early lead.
The season got underway early in some leagues over the 9th/10th August so I thought it would be interesting to analyse how the situations flagged up by the spreadsheets fared last weekend:-
English Championship:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.99%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 34.68%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 42.70%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 44.50%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 73.67
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 87.20
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 80 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 94 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Sheffield Wednesday away at Brighton (lead 1-0 after 40 minutes, won 1-0) – probably a little unlucky with Brighton picking up a red card after 50 minutes.
French Ligue 1:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 29.17%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 34.20%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.04%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 42.86%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 63.37
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 80.90
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 70 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 87 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Reims at home to PSG (lead 2-1 after 34 minutes, conceded equaliser after 63 minutes, 2-2 final scoreline). A winning lay of Reims when leading, and PSG also won the second half.
Bordeaux away at Montpellier (lead 1-0 after 17 minutes, won 1-0) – a losing trade.
Bastia at home to Marseille (lead 1-0 after 8 minutes, conceded equaliser after 11 minutes, 3-3 final scoreline). A winning lay of Bastia when leading, generated after just 3 minutes.
Marseille away at Bastia (lead 2-1 and 3-1, drew 3-3). A winning lay of Marseille when leading.
Olympique Lyonnais at home to Rennes (lead 1-0 after 64 minutes, won 2-0) – a losing trade.
Lorient away at Monaco (lead 1-0 after 9 minutes, conceded equaliser after 78 minutes, lead again after 87 minutes) – A winning initial lay of the first goal – common sense would probably prevent the second lay as Monaco were down to 10 men by the time Lorient scored their second goal.
Dutch Eredivisie:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 40.61%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 41.06%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 49.30%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 49.54%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 81.67
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 98.84
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 89 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 105 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Go Ahead Eagles at home to Groningen (lead 1-0 after 18 minutes, went 2-0 up and lost 3-2) – A winning lay.
Overall:-
Winning lays were the following teams:-
Reims
Bastia
Marseille
Lorient
Go Ahead Eagles
Losing lays were the following teams:-
Sheffield Wednesday
Bordeaux
Olympique Lyonnais
5-3 for the opening weekend of the season from three leagues – a pretty solid return considering that the likelihood of goal recovery is under 50% in all leagues.
For more information please click on the In-Play Soccer Spreadsheets link above, or email via [email protected].
