Similar to the break-back concept in Tennis, the In-play Soccer Spreadsheets highlight opportunities where it is viable to oppose teams winning in matches.
This can be done in a variety of guises – a lay of the team winning can be considered, or backing the losing team -0.5 goals or +0.5 goals at half time could be another method. The in-play goal markets can also be used, backing over x goals when a team with poor lead retention stats take an early lead.
Here is an analysis of how the situations flagged up by the spreadsheets fared for the weekend just gone:-
English Premier League:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 31.80%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 35.05%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 36.81%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 38.36%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 66.85
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 75.17
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 74 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 82 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Arsenal when 1-0 down at home to Man City – a winning trade
Swansea when 1-0 up away to Chelsea – a winning trade
Everton when 1-0 up away at West Brom – a losing trade
Liverpool when 1-0 down at home to Aston Villa – a losing trade
English Championship:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.12%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 33.91%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 42.86%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 45.13%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 72.03
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 87.99
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 79 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 95 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Birmingham when 1-0 up at home to Leeds – a winning trade
Charlton when 1-0 up at home to Watford – a losing trade
Ipswich when 1-0 up at home to Millwall – a losing trade
Nottingham Forest when 1-0 up at home to Derby – a winning trade
French Ligue 1:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 29.91%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 34.33%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.46%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 43.15%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 64.24
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 81.61
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 71 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 89 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Olympique Lyonnais when 1-0 & 2-1 up at home to Monaco – 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade
Reims when 1-0 up at home to Toulouse – 1 losing trade
Dutch Eredivisie:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 41.03%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 41.51%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 47.97%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 47.83%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 82.54
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 95.80
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 90 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 103 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Cambuur when 1-0 up at home to Groningen – a losing trade
Spanish Primera Liga:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 31.07%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 32.86%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 35.84%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 41.40%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 63.93
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 77.24
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 73 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 86 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
None.
Italian Serie A:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 33.33%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 38.77%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 41.67%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 45.16%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 72.10
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 86.83
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 81 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 95 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Sampdoria when 1-0 up at home to Torino – a losing trade
Chievo when 1-0 up away at Napoli – a losing trade
Milan when 1-0 and 2-1 up away at Parma – 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade
German Bundesliga:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 33.33%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 35.83%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 47.75%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 51.53%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 69.16
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 99.28
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 77 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 108 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Bayer Leverkusen when 1-0 and 3-2 up at home to Werder Bremen – 2 winning trades
Werder Bremen when 2-1 up away at Bayer Leverkusen – 1 winning trade
Dortmund when 1-0 up at home to Freiburg – 1 losing trade
Hoffenheim when 1-0 up at home to Wolfsburg – 1 winning trade
Overall 10-11 in trades for this weekend from seven European leagues – solid results considering the likelihood of teams recovering a goal deficit is well under 50% across those divisions.
For more information please click on the In-Play Soccer Spreadsheets link above, or email via [email protected].
