In the second part of a 7-part
series of articles (part one is available via this Link), I look at how American players fare abroad. This
research project was given to me by a Twitter follower – so if you would like
me to analyse/research something for you then please get in touch. There will
be a number of articles and resources added between now and the start of the
season in January.
I’m splitting this analysis into
a number of categories – US male players in the top 150 playing non-US/Canadian
main draw ATP events only (split into European and Asian/Australasian events),
South American players with any rank playing European Challengers (this
research area was specifically suggested) and US female players in the top 150
playing non-US/Canadian WTA events (split into European and Asian/Australasian
events).
For clarity, my policy on
retirements here was void them if the first set wasn’t completed, and I’m using
Pinnacle Sports starting prices for my analysis.
There are currently 16 US
players in the ATP top 100 with John Isner – ranked 16 – leading the
pack. Only him and Sam Querrey are currently ranked inside the top 75 in
the world.
There’s been a fair amount said
previously about a potential negative mindset with American players abroad so
this analysis will see whether that is indeed the case…
There hasn’t been much to celebrate for Ryan Harrison in Asia so far in his career…
Here’s the data for each
player’s Asian/Australasian matches:-
(Stats correct upto &
including 7th October, 2013)
John Isner:
2012 – 6 matches, 3 wins – best
win vs David Nalbandian (SP 2.00), worst defeat vs Bobby Reynolds (SP 1.21).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£134 (ROI -22.33%).
2013 – 5 matches, 2 wins – best
win vs Roberto Bautista-Agut (SP 1.52), worst defeat vs Ryan Harrison (SP 1.72).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£93 (ROI -18.60%)
2012/2013 Combined – 11 matches,
5 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£227 (ROI -20.64%).
Sam Querrey:
2012 – 10 matches, 5 wins – best
win vs Kei Nishikori (SP 2.17), worst defeat vs Victor Hanescu (SP 1.31).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£217 (ROI -21.70%)
2013 – 10 matches, 6 wins – best
win vs Stanislas Wawrinka (SP 3.87), worst defeat vs Phillip Kohlschreiber (SP
1.68).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= £155 (ROI 15.50%)
2012/2013 Combined – 20 matches,
11 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£62 (ROI 3.10%).
Jack Sock:
2012 – no matches
2013 – no matches
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= N/A
Denis Kudla:
2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best
win N/A, worst defeat vs Tommy Haas (SP 3.09)
2013 – 1 match, 0 wins – best
win N/A, worst defeat vs Jurgen Melzer (SP 2.49)
2012/2013 Combined – 2 matches,
0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100.00%)
Michael Russell:
2012 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best
win N/A, worst defeat vs Fabio Fognini (SP 1.47).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£200 (ROI -100.00%).
2013 – 1 match, 0 wins – best
win N/A, worst defeat vs Tomas Berdych (SP 16.01).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£100 (ROI -100.00%).
2012/2013 Combined – 3 matches,
0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£300 (ROI -100.00%)
Tim Smyczek:
2012 – no matches.
2013 – 2 matches, 1 win – best
win vs Ivo Karlovic (SP 2.24), worst defeat vs David Ferrer (SP 41.60)
2012/2013 Combined – 2 matches,
1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£24 (ROI 12.00%).
Ryan Harrison:
2012 – 6 matches, 1 win – best
win vs Sam Querrey (SP 2.02), worst defeat vs Phillip Kohlschreiber (SP 2.25).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£398 (ROI -66.33%).
2013 – 8 matches, 3 wins (1
voided after 1st set retirement) – best win vs John Isner (SP 2.30),
worst defeat vs Horacio Zeballos (SP 1.43).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£487 (ROI -69.57%).
2012/2013 Combined – 14 matches,
4 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£885 (ROI -63.21%).
Alex Kuznetsov:
2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win
N/A, worst defeat vs Rafael Nadal (SP
41.60).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£100 (ROI -100%).
2013 – No matches
2012/2013 Combined – 1 match, 0
wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%).
Rajeev Ram:
2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best
win N/A, worst defeat vs Alejandro Falla (SP 2.05).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£100 (ROI -100.00%).
2013 – 5 matches, 1 win – best
win vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (SP 2.90), worst defeat vs Dudi Sela (SP 2.45).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£210 (ROI -42.00%).
2012/2013 Combined – 6 matches,
1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£310 (ROI -51.67%).
Rhyne Williams:
2012 – no matches
2013 – 1 matches, 0 wins – best
win N/A, worst defeat vs Florian Mayer (SP 5.90).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£100 (ROI -100%)
2012/2013 Combined – 1 match, 0
wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%).
Donald Young:
2012 – 5 matches, 2 wins – best
win vs Yen-Hsun Lu (SP 2.42), worst defeat vs Alejandro Falla (SP 1.68).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= -£96 (ROI -19.20%).
2013 – no matches
2012/2013 Combined – 5 matches,
2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£96 (ROI -19.20%).
James Blake:
2012 – no matches
2013 – no matches
Bradley Klahn:
2012 – no matches
2013 – no matches
Wayne Odesnik:
2012 – no matches
2013 – no matches
Bobby Reynolds:
2012 – 3 matches, 2 wins – best
win vs John Isner (SP 5.14), worst defeat vs Jarkko Nieminen (SP 3.00).
Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes
= +£622 (ROI 207.33%).
2013 – no matches
2012/2013 Combined – 3 matches,
2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £622 (ROI 207.33%).
Overall
Combined US Top 150 Stats:-
2012
– 34 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£723 (ROI -21.26%)
2013
– 33 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£911 (ROI -27.67%)
2012/2013
Combined – 67 matches, 26 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£1634
(-24.39%)
Clearly
we can see from the combined stats that US men have struggled badly in Asian
and Australian matches as well as the European matches, and actually even more
so with a combined ROI of -24.39% compared to the European matches ROI of
-17.60%.
There’s
certainly some shocking records in there, with Ryan Harrison’s 4-10 (-63.21%
ROI) record absolutely horrific.
Considering this information, perhaps it is much less of a surprise that
he lost – priced at 1.43 – on hard court in Tokyo against Horacio Zeballos last
week, who has a terrible record away from clay.
As
with the European matches, a blanket strategy of opposing US players in Asia
can definitely be considered and it would surprise me greatly if this situation
was reversed in the future – when you consider that the young US players –
Sock, Kudla, Kuznetsov, Williams, Smyczek and Klahn have shown almost zero
interest in playing in Asia, preferring to play US Challengers than Asian ATP
events where sometimes they’d have a high enough ranking to get in directly,
and definitely a high enough ranking to have a decent chance of getting through
qualifying.
