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Daily Ratings & Value Picks

The Daily Ratings & Value Picks section is the core analytical output of TennisRatings. It provides a structured, model-driven view of each day’s tennis markets, and is designed to help users identify where bookmaker pricing may diverge from underlying performance expectations.
 
Rather than publishing selections or opinions, TennisRatings produces quantitative ratings for every scheduled match across the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours. These ratings are continuously updated to reflect player form, surface conditions, opponent strength and market movement. The focus is on probability, not prediction enabling users to assess value with clarity and discipline.
 
Each match is evaluated independently, allowing users to compare opportunities across tournaments, surfaces and competition levels without bias towards headline events or popular players.

Today’s Pre-Match Rating Outputs

For every match on the daily schedule, TennisRatings publishes a pre-match rating derived from a combination of player performance metrics and contextual adjustments. These ratings are designed to reflect expected match dynamics rather than raw historical results.

Key inputs include:

  • Service hold and return break performance
  • Surface-specific efficiency
  • Strength of recent opposition
  • Consistency under pressure
  • Match format and environmental factors
The output is expressed as an implied probability for each player, forming the baseline against which market prices can be assessed. Ratings are recalculated when relevant variables change, such as late withdrawals, surface switches, or abnormal market moves.
 
By standardising how each match is assessed, TennisRatings removes emotional andnarrative-driven bias from the evaluation process.

Value Percentage vs Bookmaker Odds

Value is identified by comparing TennisRatings’ implied probabilities with bookmaker odds. This comparison is expressed as a value percentage, showing the degree to which a market price deviates from the model’s expectation.
 
A positive value percentage does not indicate a guaranteed outcome. Instead, it highlights a potential pricing inefficiency where the odds available may overstate or understate a player’s true chance of winning.
 
Markets are monitored throughout the day to track line movement and closing price behaviour. This allows users to identify whether value is strengthening, eroding, or being corrected by the market.
 
By focusing on probability gaps rather than selections, this approach aligns with long-term value betting principles and avoids short-term result bias.

Projected Hold & Break Statistics

Tennis is fundamentally a serve-dominated sport, and understanding service and return dynamics is critical to accurate match assessment. TennisRatings includes projected hold and break statistics for each player, adjusted for surface, opponent quality and historical pressure performance.

These projections help users:

  • Understand expected service dominance
  • Identify mismatches in return efficiency
  • Anticipate momentum swings during matches

Hold and break projections also provide context for total games markets, in-play trading strategies, and set-level analysis. Rather than relying on headline win probabilities alone, users can explore the structural mechanics of how a match is expected to unfold.

Upset Probability Indicators

Not all underdogs are equal. TennisRatings includes upset probability indicators to highlight matches where lower-priced players may be more vulnerable than markets suggest.

These indicators account for:

  • Volatility in recent performance
  • Dependency on serve
  • Historical inconsistency in closing matches
  • Surface discomfort or matchup-specific weaknesses

The aim is not to promote speculative betting, but to highlight matches where risk asymmetry may exist particularly in early rounds or lower-tier tournaments where pricing is often less efficient.

Filters & Match-Level Explanations

Tennis is fundamentally a serve-dominated sport, and understanding service and return dynamics is critical to accurate match assessment. TennisRatings includes projected hold and break statistics for each player, adjusted for surface, opponent quality and historical pressure performance.

These projections help users:

  • Understand expected service dominance
  • Identify mismatches in return efficiency
  • Anticipate momentum swings during matches

Hold and break projections also provide context for total games markets, in-play trading strategies, and set-level analysis. Rather than relying on headline win probabilities alone, users can explore the structural mechanics of how a match is expected to unfold.