Another area which the daily spreadsheets have reflected value is the market for the first set tiebreak in matches. In the daily spreadsheets, I provide a ‘First Set No Breaks %’ for each match, which is calculated from the projected hold percentage in each relevant match-up.
I collated the data for the ATP Tour from the start of 2015 until 1st August, 2017, filtering for match-ups where the No Breaks % in the first set was greater than or equal to 40%, and there was greater than or equal to 4% edge between the implied price that the No Breaks % reflects and the available market prices.
While the sample of matches was relatively small (103) the results were stunning, running at 11.43% ROI using flat-stake betting, with the majority of prices backed being slightly greater than even money.
Furthermore, filtering for edges in excess of 10%, 71 matches were sourced, and these generated an ROI of 19.79%. If this bigger edge continues as the sample of data gets bigger, staking higher for matches with a bigger edge (e.g. Kelly staking) should certainly be considered.
I have attached the P&L spreadsheet for the matches below – available to download – although I have redacted the date of each match, as well as the tournament name, as I am keen to ensure that the full data does not fall into bookmakers’ hands.
However, I am more than happy to email known individuals with the full (non-redacted) spreadsheet – please contact me at [email protected].
