Similar to the break-back concept in Tennis, the In-play Soccer Spreadsheets highlight opportunities where it is viable to oppose teams winning in matches.
This can be done in a variety of guises – a lay of the team winning can be considered, or backing the losing team -0.5 goals or +0.5 goals at half time could be another method. The in-play goal markets can also be used, backing over x goals when a team with poor lead retention stats take an early lead.
It was week two in some leagues across the 15-17th August, and we also saw the start of the English Premier League season. Here is an analysis of how the situations flagged up by the spreadsheets fared last weekend:-
English Premier League:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 31.80%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 35.05%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 36.81%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 38.36%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 66.85
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 75.17
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 74 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 82 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Sunderland away at West Brom (lead 1-0 after 5 minutes, conceded equaliser after 42 minutes) – a winning trade
West Brom at home to Sunderland (lead 2-1 after 74 minutes, conceded equaliser after 85 minutes) – a winning trade
Aston Villa away at Stoke (lead 1-0 after 50 minutes, won 1-0) – a losing trade
Crystal Palace away at Arsenal (lead 1-0 after 35 minutes, conceded equaliser after 45 minutes) – a winning trade
English Championship:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.12%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 33.91%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 42.86%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 45.13%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 72.03
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 87.99
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 79 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 95 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Bolton at home to Nottingham Forest (lead 1-0 after 4 minutes, conceded equaliser after 27 minutes, lead 2-1 after 29 minutes, conceded equaliser after 35 minutes, final score 2-2) – 2 winning trades
Birmingham at home to Brighton (lead 1-0 after 49 minutes, won 1-0) – a losing trade
French Ligue 1:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 29.91%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 34.33%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.46%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 43.15%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 64.24
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 81.61
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 71 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 89 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
Rennes at home to Evian (lead 1-0 after 6 minutes, conceded equaliser after 35 minutes, lead 2-1 after 39 minutes, won 6-2) – 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade
Reims away at St.Etienne (lead 1-0 after 27 minutes, conceded equaliser after 60 minutes) – a winning trade
Bordeaux at home to Monaco (lead 2-1 after 61 minutes, won 4-1) – a losing trade
Dutch Eredivisie:-
Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 41.03%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 41.51%.
Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 47.97%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 47.83%.
Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 82.54
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 95.80
Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 90 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 103 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-
ADO Den Haag away at FC Twente (lead 2-1 after 77 minutes, conceded equaliser after 86 minutes) – a winning trade
Cambuur away at Vitesse (lead 1-0 after 10 minutes, conceded equaliser after 19 minutes) – a winning trade
Ajax away at AZ (lead 1-0 after 15 minutes, conceded equaliser after 50 minutes, lead 2-1 after 69 minutes, won 3-1) – 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade
Overall:-
Winning lays were the following teams:-
Sunderland
West Brom
Crystal Palace
Bolton x2
Rennes
Reims
Den Haag
Cambuur
Ajax
Losing lays were the following teams:-
Aston Villa
Birmingham
Rennes
Bordeaux
Ajax
10-5 in trades for this weekend from four leagues – incredible results considering that the likelihood of goal recovery is under 50% in all leagues.
For more information please click on the In-Play Soccer Spreadsheets link above, or email via [email protected].
