coming soon new pre match tips

With pre-match betting it’s vital to realise that it’s very possible (as it is with trading although with trading it depends on your attitude to risk) to have bad runs of variance but as long as the tips have a mathematical and logical edge then any bad run will come to an end. What is important to know is that a tipster cannot be proven to have a winning edge until they have around 700-1000 matches in their portfolio. This is generally about the sort of level of sample you need to have a z score of over 2 (which would mean that the tips success would be <2.27% luck). If you’re interested in this you can read more at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score. With tennis, an excellent return on investment would be anything over 3%. I don’t know many pre-match gamblers that can boast of a return on investment over 5% when a statistically significant sample size is considered. There are many sharp tennis brains at tennisinsight.com and there’s only one tipper, to my knowledge, that has an ROI over 5% over a high level of turnover.

However, whilst 3% ROI does not sound anything particularly exciting, if you re-invested your winnings daily making 3% on average per day, you will be able to build your bankroll pretty quickly. I would recommend investing no bigger than 5% of your bankroll on an individual bet pre-match. My tips will have a maximum stake of 5 points per bet, although I will rarely recommend bets over 3 points. The tip would need to have an absolutely huge edge for me to do that. It would make sense if you assign 1% or 2% of your bankroll to 1 point per my recommendations.

My tips will need to pass several tests before they are published. First of all they need to represent value based on my projected hold model, and secondly I take into account other factors regarding the match-up. Many of these are the mental side of the game that I feel many people don’t consider, such as fatigue due to playing too many matches or travelling/jet lag. I consider ‘dominant’ head to head records but do not consider scores like 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 3-1. Despite what the media may tell you, they mean nothing – I’ve done the research. I’m talking a lead of 4+ matches. If you haven’t read it yet, my article Article – The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match provides more information on what I consider important.

It’s vital that followers have many bookmaker accounts to take advantage of the best prices. If you don’t take the best prices, you will find that it’s very difficult to maintain a good level of profit (if at all).

If you subscribe to my tips, there are various ways you can proceed.

1. You can ‘lump and leave’ – effectively betting on them pre-match and then waiting for them to win or lose.

2. You could consider laying the player off if they win the first set or when they are a set and break up. I’m not necessarily sure that hedging pre-match bets blindly has expected value, but some people prefer it as it is slightly less stressful.

3. You could consider backing the recommended player at a higher price than the starting price in-play or laying the non-recommended player at a lower price than the starting price.

If you have any questions please do not hesitate to email me at [email protected]