12th April, 2016:-
The 2016 Monte Carlo Masters 1000 event finishes its first round today, with several second round matches also on the card. If you haven’t checked out my video preview yet, you can do this at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIjmruOw3TM.
As would be expected of one of my favourite trading tournaments (good liquidity, high player effort, slow conditions) there are plentiful potential opportunities in the markets today, with matches just getting underway.
All matches are covered in the daily betting/trading spreadsheets. For a free one-day sample of these, please sign-up here.
One player that I’d expect to be very vulnerable as a front-runner in one of the matches starting now is Daniel Gimeno-Traver. The Spaniard has had a mediocre 2016 and takes on the Uruguayan clay-courter, Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas starts at around 1.28 which looks about right given the stats, but he has excellent deficit recovery stats – the lead loss/recovery sheets show he has recovered the first break deficit in sets 55.0% across all sets since July 2014, with a particular ability at recovering final set deficits. Laying Gimeno-Traver when leading looks an attractive option.
Frenchman Adrian Mannarino also looks more likely than average to give up leads against the Japanese, Taro Daniel. Brought up in Spain, Daniel is comfortable on clay and Mannarino’s stats take a big hit on the dirt. Daniel starts as a slight favourite to get a rare ATP win and that looks correct. Mannarino loses leads way more than average according to the lead loss/recovery sheets (51.6% in 1st sets, and 44.8% from either a set and break up in the second set or a break up in the final set) and looking to oppose him when a break in front seems entirely logical.
Several players, including Fabio Fognini and Roger Federer, go into the event with injury doubts and should in-play stats reflect that they are competitive, then looking to lay their opponent when leading should also be a positive expectation move. Fognini’s stats show that he is strong (44.1%) when either a set and break down or a break down in the final set so if he looks in reasonable condition, then laying opponent Paolo Lorenzi looks a good move.
Federer’s deficit recovery stats are unsurprisingly excellent (55.6% from a set and break down or break down in final set) and the market may be a little fearful of his condition, hence a price of around 1.15 against the Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Slow clay is probably the surface where the two players are closest matched, and it will be interesting to see how Federer starts here.
Good luck in the markets, and stay green!
