The basis of this was to analyse various game state situations, to work out the likelihood of certain outcomes given previous match activity with several variables added to the mix – these being starting price and projected hold percentage from the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets.
Following this, I now have percentages for ATP and WTA for various situations for t
he entire 2014 season for both the ATP and WTA Tours. This covers around 4000 matches combined, so the data combines to give a very large sample size.Sets 1&3 – Break deficit recovery percentages generated by projected hold and starting price variables.
Set 2 – Likelihood of set 1 winner or set 1 loser gaining the first break in the set, and break deficit recovery (including double break deficit recovery) percentages generated by projected hold and starting price.
So, for example, if SP 2.00-2.99 wins first set and their protected hold was over 5% below mean (just one of many scenarios), I can then get an accurate percentage on how often that player will gain the first break in the second set, how often they’ll relinquish a set and break lead, and how often they’ll lose at least one break from a set and double break up.
For tonight’s quarter-final match at Indian Wells between Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer, I was able to generate the following statistics using the Game State Spreadsheet Data:-
Having taken 1st break of Set 1, loses lead to go back on serve = 54.2%
Gets the first break of Set 2 when won 1st set = 46.3%
Having got the first set and break lead in set 2, loses lead to go back on serve = 50.7%
Loses at least 1 break of set and double break lead in Set 2 when won Set 1 = 15.0%
Having taken 1st break of Set 3, loses lead to go back on serve = 57.1%
First set tiebreak win % = 37.9%
Second set tiebreak win % when won 1st set = 45.7%
Third set tiebreak win % = 35.5%
Set and break leads lost = 4 (inc 1 vs Federer), 3 still won 2nd set, 1 lost match (vs Federer)
Set and break leads recovered = 1 (won match)
Match win % when wins first set but loses a set and break lead in set 2 for the first time = 51.9%
Set 2 win %
Set 3 win % when wins first set but loses a set and break lead in set 2 for the first time = 16.1%
Federer stats:-
Having taken 1st break of Set 1, loses lead to go back on serve = 34.1%
Gets the first break of Set 2 when won 1st set = 68.0%
Having got the first set and break lead in set 2, loses lead to go back on serve = 28.9%
Loses at least 1 break of set and double break lead in Set 2 when won Set 1 = 14.9%
Having taken 1st break of Set 3, loses lead to go back on serve = 35.7%
First set tiebreak win % = 62.1%
Second set tiebreak win % when won 1st set = 57.9%
Third set tiebreak win % = 64.5%
Set and break leads lost = 3, won 2nd set still every time
Set and break leads recovered = 1 (won match)
Match win %
Set 2 win % when wins first set but loses a set and break lead in set 2 for the first time = 69.1%
Set 3 win % when wins first set but loses a set and break lead in set 2 for the first time = 73.5%
Due to the sensitivity and obvious edges that this information provides, these sheets will be significantly more expensive than normal TennisRatings products.
