Statistics & Modelling

The numbers behind smarter tennis betting

At the core of TennisRatings lies a robust, data-driven modelling framework designed to identify inefficiencies in tennis betting markets. Our statistics go far beyond surface-level win–loss records, focusing instead on the underlying performance indicators that consistently drive long-term betting value.

Service Hold & Break Percentage

We track service hold and break percentages by player, providing a clearer picture of true match strength than raw results alone. These metrics highlight how reliably a player holds serve and how effectively they apply pressure when returning (critical inputs for both pre-match and in-play betting decisions).

Opponent-Blended Adjusted Statistics

All player metrics are opponent-adjusted, meaning performances are weighted based on the quality of opposition faced. This prevents misleading conclusions from inflated stats against weaker fields and helps isolate genuine performance trends.

Surface-Adjusted Ratings

Our surface-adjusted, Elo-style ratings account for the fact that tennis performance varies significantly across hard, clay, grass, and indoor courts. This allows bettors to compare players accurately within the correct surface context, rather than relying on generic rankings.

High-Pressure Point Performance

We analyse how players perform on break points, tie-breaks, and deciding sets, offering insight into mental resilience and clutch performance, factors often underpriced by bookmakers.

Closing Line Value & Variance

TennisRatings tracks closing line value (CLV) to evaluate whether prices beat the market over time, alongside variance metrics that help users understand risk, volatility, and sample reliability.

Model Methodology

Our methodology is transparent enough to build trust, without revealing proprietary intellectual property. We explain what the model measures and why it matters without compromising the edge.

TennisRatings is built for bettors who value structure, logic, and statistical integrity over guesswork.