tennis trading atp wta

2nd March, 2018.

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Choking in sport is something which is often discussed among fans and pundits alike – not to mention bettors and traders – and Tennis is no different. A quick check of social media on a daily basis shows players being called out for choking (among other things), but it’s often difficult to assess whether a player has choked due to mental pressure, or simply due to inconsistencies in their skill-set.

Sports traders shouldn’t necessarily worry about the reasoning for a player choking, but are likely to be more interested in being able to predict it’s likelihood of occurring in advance, or at least, being able to do so better than the general markets do.

The Pressure Point daily spreadsheets that I provide enable users to do just this. Focusing on player performance (break lead retention and break deficit recovery) when players are a single break up or down at *4-2 or later in the set, they illustrate these player abilities for in excess of 100 players on each tour.

Raw numbers from these are interesting enough – removing several players with small sample sizes, here are the worst ten performers on the ATP Tour for losing break leads from *4-2 or later in sets:-

Player	*Set 1, Single Break Leads at 4-2 or later**			*Set 2 (Set & Break), Single Break Leads at 4-2 or later**			*Set 3, Single Break Leads at 4-2 or later**			Sets 2&3 Combined%	All Sets Combined%
	Loses to go back on Serve			Loses to go back on Serve			Loses to go back on Serve
	Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%
1/1/16 to 26/2/18	544	1765	23.56	317	1195	20.97	214	697	23.49	21.91	22.72

Marchenko	8	6	57.14	1	3	25.00	2	1	66.67	42.86	52.38
Kukushkin	7	8	46.67	1	4	20.00	2		100.00	42.86	45.45
Robert	6	7	46.15	2	2	50.00	1	2	33.33	42.86	45.00
Elias	3	5	37.50	4	4	50.00	1	3	25.00	41.67	40.00
Melzer G	5	6	45.45	1	2	33.33	1	3	25.00	28.57	38.89
Millman	5	3	62.50		1	0.00	2	7	22.22	20.00	38.89
Darcis	4	10	28.57	3	4	42.86	2	1	66.67	50.00	37.50
Olivo	3	3	50.00	1	5	16.67	2	2	50.00	30.00	37.50
Delbonis	8	8	50.00	2	8	20.00	3	6	33.33	26.32	37.14
Lorenzi	10	19	34.48	8	9	47.06	2	7	22.22	38.46	36.36
Paire	10	25	28.57	10	18	35.71	7	7	50.00	40.48	35.06

These eleven players have performed considerably worse than the average player, losing leads in excess of 35% across all sets, compared to the Tour mean (for players covered in these sheets) of 22.72%, and generate something of a shortlist of players who have been extremely vulnerable in tight, pressure situations, when leading in sets.

The best players for recovery at the business ends of sets also makes for interesting analysis:-

Player	Losing Situations	*Set 1, Single Break Deficits at 4-2 or later**			*Set 2 (Set & Break), Single Break Deficits at 4-2 or later**			*Set 3, Single Break Deficits at 4-2 or later**			Sets 2&3 Combined%	All Sets Combined%
		Recovers to go back on Serve			Recovers to go back on Serve			Recovers to go back on Serve
		Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%
1/1/16 to 26/2/18	4334	558	1618	25.64	304	1023	22.91	195	636	23.47	23.12	24.39

Schwartzman	54	13	11	54.17	8	10	44.44	4	8	33.33	40.00	46.30
Murray	22	4	5	44.44	2	3	40.00	4	4	50.00	46.15	45.45
De Schepper	18	2	6	25.00	5	2	71.43	1	2	33.33	60.00	44.44
Monfils	33	8	11	42.11	4	4	50.00	2	4	33.33	42.86	42.42
Cervantes	30	8	6	57.14	3	11	21.43	1	1	50.00	25.00	40.00
Daniel	20	6	5	54.55	1	2	33.33	1	5	16.67	22.22	40.00
Djokovic	20	3	8	27.27	4	3	57.14	1	1	50.00	55.56	40.00
Bellucci	41	11	12	47.83	5	5	50.00		8	0.00	27.78	39.02
Rublev	31	9	11	45.00	2	6	25.00	1	2	33.33	27.27	38.71
Tsonga	31	5	9	35.71	3	5	37.50	4	5	44.44	41.18	38.71
Fognini	52	12	18	40.00	2	8	20.00	6	6	50.00	36.36	38.46
Goffin	71	15	22	40.54	9	14	39.13	3	8	27.27	35.29	38.03

There’s a real mix here of top players, and return-orientated clay-courters in the main, and again, these players boast numbers considerably better than the Tour mean (for players covered in these sheets) of 24.39%.

The WTA data was also very interesting, with a number of players losing a single break lead more than 45% – much more than the Tour mean (for players covered in these sheets) of 33.13%:-

Player	Leading Situations	*Set 1, Single Break Leads at 4-2 or later**			*Set 2 (Set & Break), Single Break Leads at 4-2 or later**			*Set 3, Single Break Leads at 4-2 or later**			Sets 2&3 Combined%	All Sets Combined%
		Loses to go back on Serve			Loses to go back on Serve			Loses to go back on Serve
		Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%
1/1/16 to 26/2/18	6991	1240	2297	35.06	636	1582	28.67	440	796	35.60	31.15	33.13

Erakovic	18	4	3	57.14	1	1	50.00	6	3	66.67	63.64	61.11
Rodina	34	11	5	68.75	6	7	46.15	3	2	60.00	50.00	58.82
Golubic	46	16	11	59.26	4	4	50.00	6	5	54.55	52.63	56.52
Soler-Espinosa	16	2	4	33.33	4	2	66.67	3	1	75.00	70.00	56.25
Errani	65	22	16	57.89	8	10	44.44	5	4	55.56	48.15	53.85
McHale	75	23	20	53.49	9	9	50.00	7	7	50.00	50.00	52.00
Witthoeft	55	17	13	56.67	7	10	41.18	3	5	37.50	40.00	49.09
Bondarenko	45	9	11	45.00	7	6	53.85	6	6	50.00	52.00	48.89
Hsieh	38	10	7	58.82	4	6	40.00	4	7	36.36	38.10	47.37
Buzarnescu	15	5	3	62.50	1	5	16.67	1		100.00	28.57	46.67
Cepelova	26	6	10	37.50	3	2	60.00	3	2	60.00	60.00	46.15
Hercog	26	8	7	53.33	3	5	37.50	1	2	33.33	36.36	46.15
Vekic	44	14	12	53.85	2	9	18.18	4	3	57.14	33.33	45.45

The names on this list probably wouldn’t surprise many people – for the most part, they are not particularly highly ranked and many of these players also have mediocre all-surface service hold percentages as well.

However, the list of players with greater than a 45% break deficit recovery percentage was something of a mixed bag, with numerous top players included, but also some lower-profile names as well:-

Player	Losing Situations	*Set 1, Single Break Deficits at 4-2 or later**			*Set 2 (Set & Break), Single Break Deficits at 4-2 or later**			*Set 3, Single Break Deficits at 4-2 or later**			Sets 2&3 Combined%	All Sets Combined%
		Recovers to go back on Serve			Recovers to go back on Serve			Recovers to go back on Serve
		Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%	Yes	No	%
1/1/16 to 26/2/18	6401	1205	2075	36.74	587	1372	29.96	436	726	37.52	32.78	34.81

Williams V	50	25	13	65.79	2	5	28.57	2	3	40.00	33.33	58.00
Vondrousova	18	4	3	57.14	5	3	62.50	1	2	33.33	54.55	55.56
Sharapova	24	10	5	66.67	1	2	33.33	2	4	33.33	33.33	54.17
Williams S	15	6	5	54.55	1	2	33.33	1		100.00	50.00	53.33
Niculescu	63	15	19	44.12	8	6	57.14	9	6	60.00	58.62	50.79
Siegemund	48	10	13	43.48	9	6	60.00	5	5	50.00	56.00	50.00
Halep	56	17	15	53.13	7	7	50.00	4	6	40.00	45.83	50.00
Errani	59	17	13	56.67	7	15	31.82	5	2	71.43	41.38	49.15
Lisicki	54	14	12	53.85	7	10	41.18	5	6	45.45	42.86	48.15
Rybarikova	21	5	8	38.46	2	2	50.00	3	1	75.00	62.50	47.62
Kvitova	55	11	18	37.93	10	6	62.50	5	5	50.00	57.69	47.27
Beck	51	15	14	51.72	7	12	36.84	2	1	66.67	40.91	47.06
Wozniacki	96	29	30	49.15	9	12	42.86	6	10	37.50	40.54	45.83
Keys	48	17	14	54.84	4	8	33.33	1	4	20.00	29.41	45.83
Muguruza	53	15	13	53.57	4	9	30.77	5	7	41.67	36.00	45.28

Hopefully this article has given you some insight into the trading strategies which can be devised from the Pressure Point spreadsheets, with all purchases including free regular updates.

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