April 24th, 2017.
From the start of the 2017, I began including details of vulnerable front-runners, where relevant, in the ATP and WTA daily spreadsheets notes column.
Without giving out too much information on the criteria I use for identifying these players, I can use similar historical match-ups (not necessarily featuring either player) to determine the likelihood of a future scenario occurring. An oft-used phrase is ‘players are not robots’, and while that is obviously a fair statement (although some probably have some metal in their bodies due to surgeries!), it is also fair to say that they do revert to type a great deal of the time too.
The table below indicates the results of these vulnerable front-runners in the WTA so far this season (match by match analysis available to download at the bottom of this article):-
|
Vulnerable Front-Runner Leads (when trading below SP) |
Vulnerable Front-Runner Lead Losses |
Lead Loss % |
|
|
Set 1 |
178 |
108 |
60.67 |
|
Set 2 (Set & Break) |
92 |
60 |
65.22 |
|
Set 3 |
60 |
38 |
63.33 |
|
Overall |
330 |
206 |
62.42 |
These WTA vulnerable front-runners lost a break lead to go back on serve almost 63% so far this season, and when you consider that the mean figure for the WTA is below 50%, it is clear that using historical match-ups to determine the likelihood of a future break-back occurring is a very strong strategy.
Unlike the ATP, the break-back percentages were relatively evenly distributed throughout the sets in the WTA, with dominant front-runners (set and break up or break up in set 3) particularly vulnerable to losing leads when they were identified to do so in advance.
To download the full database of information, please click the link below.
