I’ve written this article to show users how to get the
most out the ‘Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet’.
The Spreadsheets should be quite self-explanatory but I
have received a lot of questions from people that have received part of the
Master Spreadsheet as the free sample so I’m going to endeavour to answer them
on here.
The Master Spreadsheet:
The first area I look at (columns B-G) is the ATP set stats for each
player (this is only 3 set matches, not 5 sets because they are incomparable in
this area e.g. the deciding 3rd set in the ATP matches is only the
middle set of a Grand Slam match). This
is divided into first set, second set and third set win percentages for each
player. We also can see the percentage
of matches that each player has gone to 3 sets (the 2013 ATP average for this
is 36.08%).
All other areas cover main draw matches in either the 3
set or 5 set format.
Columns H-K indicate overall stats for each player. Column H is the service hold for each player
across all surfaces in 2013. Column I is
the percentage that player breaks their opponent across all surfaces in
2013. Column J is just (100-Column H)
which reflects the percentage the player has their service broken. Column K is the player’s service hold plus
their break opponent percentage which should reflect how ‘good’ a player
is. Anything over 110 would indicate top
10 status roughly.
The next area (columns L-O) I assess is the early parts
of the set. This is the first two
service games and the first two return games for each player. Column N is the difference between the
percentage a player gets broken at any time of the set and how often they get
broken in the early games. Taking
Almagro as an example he gets broken 14.4% overall in 2013 but only 11.4% in
the early 2 games. This would indicate
he is strong in the early parts of the set as he gets broken 3.0% less in the
early stages (which is reflected in column N). Then we apply the opposite to how often they
break their opponents which is column O.
Columns P-S show how often a player holds serve (column
P) or breaks their opponent serve (column Q) in the late stages of a set. A late stage of a set is considered to be
when the first player gets to 4 games (e.g. 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3) and any time
after that (up to 6-6). Column R is the
difference between how often a player holds their serve in these late games and
their overall 2013 service hold percentage.
We can use Almagro as an example again.
He holds 85.6% overall in 2013 but only 80.68% in the late games of the
set so he holds 4.92% less in late games in a set than overall games in a
set. This would indicate he struggles
more under the pressure of the latter stages of the set. Column S is the same but how often a player
breaks their opponent. We can see Kevin
Anderson overall breaks his opponent 19.3% in 2013 but late on in the set he
has broken his opponent 22.51% – so he breaks his opponents 3.21% more late on
in the set. So his return game seems to
thrive late on in the set.
Columns T-U show how often a player gives a break lead
back (so the set goes back to being on serve – column T) and how often a player
gets a break deficit back (again, so the set goes back to being on serve –
column U). This is at any time in the
set and of course it is possible for a player to break back or give a break
lead up multiple times in a set.
All the averages for each category are given in row 9 so
you can compare each player’s stats to the ATP average.
I hope this gives users a good idea of how the Master
Spreadsheet works and for users to see just how lucrative the data on there can be in the betting markets.
To get a free sample, simply sign-up for TennisRatings Updates at the Sign up link.
The WTA version will be available ready for the 2014 season, and will have over 90% data coverage, as with the ATP version.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss what The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet can do for you, your website or company, please contact me via email.
