There are just the two tournaments this week as we are in the week immediately prior to the US Open.
In the men’s tournament in Winston Salem, favourites tend
do reasonably well.
They’ve won 67% in my sample which is above the hard
court 250 average of 61%. Many people consider
that the better players have a high chance of tanking in these tournaments immediately
prior to a Grand Slam but those figures dispute that assertion.
Last year at this venue, service hold was high with 82.0%
service games held. This is a fair bit
above the current 12 month ATP hard court average of 78.7%.
There’s a 48 man field but you can cross a line through the
vast majority of entrants when looking for a potential winner.
Based on my projected hold analysis, this is Tomas Berdych’s tournament to lose. However his price at 3.50 reflects that. He has got to the semi final or final in the
last three tournaments he has played in the week preceding the start of a Grand Slam so it’s
clear that he’s unlikely to tank this week.
He lost to John Isner in last year’s final.
Isner is second favourite at 5.50 and has a superb 10-0
venue record having won both tournaments
played here, but he surely needs a break after playing an awful lot of tennis
recently. I can’t encourage any backing
of him.
Other players I’m willing to draw a line through
immediately are Fernando Verdasco, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Juan Monaco, Jurgen
Melzer, Tommy Robredo and Andreas Seppi (the second seed) who all the last 12
months have not broken their opponents more than they’ve been broken themselves
on hard courts.
I feel that there could be at least one if not several
big priced semi finalists with the bottom half of the draw looking particularly
weak.
Yen-Hsun Lu
has a winnable quarter having already advanced to the second round with an
early match on Sunday. Today he faces
the Spanish claycourter, Pablo Andujar, before a likely third round match with
Seppi. He’s available at 100/1 (101) and
getting to the quarter-finals at least appears a real possibility.
Edouard
Roger-Vasselin is another at 100/1 who can benefit from a very open draw facing
another Spanish claycourter, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, in his opener, before facing
the out of form Dolgopolov next. He
then, if seedings are accurate, faces Juan Monaco in the third round. The Argentine has a horrific hard court
record in the last 12 months and cannot be considered a threat on for any hard
court tournament currently.
These players, should they get past these hurdles, would then
play each other in the quarter finals.
Gael Monfils
has a decent draw in the third quarter as well, and he gets a first round bye
before taking on a poor clay courter in Leonardo Mayer or Guido Pella in the
second round. He’s likely to face Denis
Istomin in the third round before a quarter final against a variety of mediocre
opponents (Verdasco, Haase or Rosol possibly).
He’d then take on the player from the Lu/Roger-Vasselin quarter in the
semi-finals. If the enigmatic Frenchman
wants it, a final berth is his for the taking.
He can be backed at 13.00 (12/1) for the tournament.
In the women’s Premier event in New Haven, the field isn’t
as good quality as last week’s Premier event in Cincinnati.
We can judge projected holds on each players merits
pretty much, with last year’s service hold being 62.2 (slightly below the
current 12 month hard court WTA average of 62.9%).
Caroline Wozniacki has a magnificent record at this tournament
winning the event four times in a row from 2008-2011. Last year injury curtailed her ambitions of 5
wins in a row in the semi-finals, but even with her being out of form to an
extent, she cannot be ruled out of contention this week.
Last year’s winner, Petra Kvitova, also hasn’t been in
the best of touch either, but is the very slight tournament favourite at 7.50
(13/2). This promises to be an open
tournament, especially when you consider that the top seed is Sara Errani, who
doesn’t play her best on hard courts and there are 10 players with odds under
20/1!
One player I want to keep on my side is Simona Halep. She’s in great form this year and actually
has the best hard court stats of any of the entrants here in 2013. With her being in the first quarter of the
draw, meaning that she faces the weakest of the top four seeds in a potential quarter
final (Errani) this is also in her favour and I think she can do well for us at
a starting price of 15.00 (14/1).
Caroline Wozniacki
is scheduled to meet her in the semi-finals and with the Dane coming back
into a little bit of form last week in Cincinnati and having an excellent
record here, I strongly feel that one of these players gets to the final she
she can be backed at 8.00 (7/1).
Also in this quarter is the interesting Elina Svitolina
and she is a player I really like, who I feel has great future potential. She has an excellent hard court record from
the 15 games she’s played on the surface on the main tour in the last 12 months
(winning 11) and recently took home the Baku title for her maiden WTA tournament
win. I’m stopping short of recommending
her at 67.00 (66/1) because she has a tough draw but if you want a real outsider
to back here I can think of plenty worse than her.
The bottom half of the draw is tough to call. I don’t have an over-riding preference on any
player in particular. Angelique Kerber I
feel is vulnerable currently and should Elena Vesnina have been in better form
currently I’d have considered recommending her at 34.00 (33/1) in an
anti-Kerber play. Dominika Cibulkova
and Sabine Lisicki I find over-rated generally and again here, so there’s no
reason why Petra Kvitova cannot get
to the final at least. Considering she’s
the defending champion she will have plenty of motivation defending ranking
points and I’m also going to tentatively recommend her at 7.50 (13/2) to add to
the portfolio.
This week’s recommended bets:
ATP Winston Salem:-
Back Tomas Berdych at 5/2
Back to lay Yen-Hsun Lu at 100/1
Back to lay Edouard Roger-Vasselin at 100/1
Back Gael Monfils (possibly laying in the final) at 12/1
WTA New Haven:-
Back Simona Halep at 14/1 (optional free bet creation or
some profit taking is fine at the semi-final stage)
Back Caroline Wozniacki at 7/1
Back Petra Kvitova at 13/2
